Driving Innovations

Remember when hybrid vehicles were considered exotic? All that it took to become the talk of a backyard barbecue a decade ago was to rattle the keys to your Toyota Prius or Honda Insight and boast about your car’s amazing gas mileage. But now electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV) are the new kids on the block. At the same time, automakers are squeezing hybridlike fuel economy from some of their latest gasoline-powered models. As a result, the thought of buying a hybrid seems almost conventional these days.

But hybrid vehicles hardly have run their course. Federal fuel-economy mandates have forced automakers to place an even greater emphasis on building more hybrid models in the years ahead to compensate for their least efficient gasoline-powered models. Consumers should prepare for a second wave of hybrid (and electric) vehicles if things play out the way that experts tell Consumers Digest. In particular, you should expect to see automakers create larger hybrids and more luxury hybrids in addition to new hybrid versions of conventional models. In many cases, these new models won’t get the eye-popping gas mileage that the smallest hybrids do, but they will deliver double-digit percentage gains over the nonhybrid versions of the same models.

Manufacturers have their eyes on more than just improving fuel economy. You should look for new safety and technology features to be added to vehicles in the next few years. Automakers also are looking farther down the road by pursuing features that are based on Internet programs that are designed to help your vehicle to run more efficiently, depending on what your driving habits are. And even though manufacturers are getting closer to creating the first vehicle that drives by itself, you can’t afford to take your eyes off the road (or off automakers) just yet, because the latest automobile trends could have plenty of consequences for your wallet, for your vehicle’s performance and for how you drive.

HYBRID HIGH. The push for more hybrid and electric vehicles is driven by automakers’ sense that consumers want options in light of galloping oil prices. It’s also in reaction to federal regulations that force automakers to improve overall gas mileage for all models. In addition to having to achieve 35.5 mpg across their product lines by 2016 (up from about 27 mpg today), automakers basically will have to double down on fuel economy beyond that. Rules that were announced in August call for 54.5 mpg across product lines by 2025. Although that lofty target might seem like light years away, automakers know that they can’t get there overnight, so they’re figuring out how to achieve the new mileage requirements now. You won’t notice a difference in 2012, but new models that are aimed at these requirements will arrive in the next few years.

By 2015, you’ll be able to choose from as many as 50 hybrid models, according to Alan Baum, who is an auto-industry analyst. That compares with just 29 hybrids today, according to Department of Energy. Baum says he expects that the number of hybrid models will continue to increase at the same pace beyond 2015. Hybrids aren’t less expensive to build than are models that use more-conventional ways of improving gas mileage, such as improving vehicle aerodynamics or modifying conventional engines, but they still hold the biggest potential for fuel savings among various technologies, according to a June 2010 study by National Academy of Sciences.

But don’t expect to see new hybrids that get significantly better mileage than any hybrid that’s on the market today. And you won’t necessarily see any new hybrids that are less expensive than today’s models are.

But by 2025, the effect of the standards on automakers’ vehicle development could end up saving you as much as $8,000 in fuel costs over the life of a vehicle in comparison with costs for today’s gasoline-powered vehicle, according to the most recent estimates by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The bad news is that industry officials are warning that these future vehicles still will cost thousands of dollars more than gasoline-powered models, which means that the extra money that you pay for a vehicle that gets better mileage could erase any fuel-cost savings. Center for Automotive Research (CAR) estimates that a hybrid powerplant can add about $3,500 to the cost of manufacturing a vehicle. That’s more than it costs to modify a conventional powerplant with gasoline-saving technologies, which costs manufacturers $1,200–$1,500, but less than it would to build a plug-in hybrid, which can add $6,000–$9,000 to manufacturing costs.

The new hybrid models that are coming for 2012 and beyond will continue to be a mix of new nameplates and hybrid siblings of existing vehicles, and some even will have plug-in recharging capability. And you can expect to see hybrid technology being used in more large and luxury vehicles in the years ahead. For instance, in 2012, automakers will introduce hybrid versions of familiar names, such as the Audi Q5, the Buick Regal, the Chevrolet Malibu, the Infiniti M and the Porsche Panamera. Ford’s new C-Max hybrid is a five-passenger, four-door hatchback that’s scheduled to arrive in spring 2012 along with its plug-in-hybrid twin, the C-Max Energi. In the 2013 model year and beyond, you can expect to see the first hybrid car from Volkswagen (Jetta) and one from Subaru, although Subaru hasn’t specified a model. BMW will introduce its first plug-in hybrid (i8 sports car), and Cadillac plans to produce its Converj sedan, which is an upscale version of General Motors’ plug-in Chevrolet Volt. In other words, no vehicles are off-limits when it comes to getting a hybrid powerplant.

There’s no question that the hybridization of larger or upscale models benefits the consumer. For example, if you drove 10,000 miles in a 2012 Buick LaCrosse that has the new eAssist so-called mild-hybrid system (29 mpg average, compared with 21 mpg for the V6 version), you would save $459 if the cost of gasoline averages $3.50 a gallon. If you drove, say, a Honda Civic hybrid (44 mpg vs. 32 mpg for conventional models), you would save $299 on a comparable basis.

That isn’t to say automakers don’t benefit: Larger cars and SUVs have higher profit margins, and buyers typically aren’t as finicky about higher prices on those vehicle types as they are on smaller models. So it’s no wonder that some automakers are starting to price their large-car and SUV hybrids near the cost of their conventional versions. Given the profit margins, they can absorb the higher costs of hybrid technology on those vehicles and still make money. For instance, the Lincoln MKZ hybrid has a sticker price of $34,645, which is the same price as the conventional version. (After incentives, however, the standard MKZ still sells for less.) Mercedes-Benz prices the hybrid version of its flagship S Class sedan lower than that of the conventional versions. The S400 Hybrid is $91,850, compared with $94,500 for the S500 and $159,500 for the S600. You can expect future hybrids of large vehicles to follow the same pricing pattern, but all other hybrids will continue to cost extra when compared with their conventional versions.

GUZZLING LESS GAS. Automakers will continue to rely on modifying the internal-combustion engine to achieve better fuel economy, too, according to automobile executives with whom we spoke. For instance, Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne said in August that gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to be the mainstay of Chrysler’s lineup. The 2016 gas-mileage regulations will force automakers to use the best internal-combustion technology that they can, says Brett Smith, who is co-director of CAR.

What’s most notable to us is how improvements to gasoline-powered engines now are showing up on entry-level vehicles. For example, Hyundai added direct injection to the four-cylinder engine that’s in the 2012 Accent ($12,445) to help it to achieve 30 mpg in the city and 40 mpg on the highway. It was the first economy vehicle to receive direct injection. The technology, which involves squirting precise amounts of gasoline into cylinders for a more complete burn, accounts for one-third of the car’s 18.1 percent improvement in fuel economy over the 2011 version, according to Hyundai. Although the Accent remains Hyundai’s lowest priced car, the automaker eliminated an Accent model that had been selling for around $10,000.

Hyundai’s corporate sister, Kia, not only added direct injection to its entry-level Rio ($13,600) but also made the compact car the first economy vehicle to get stop-start technology as well. Stop-start technology shuts off the vehicle’s engine at appropriate times to save gasoline, such as when the car stands still at a stoplight, then starts again as soon as you press the accelerator. But don’t get too excited about this feature. Stop-start technology is part of the manufacturer’s $400 optional fuel-economy package (called Eco) and boosts mileage by a meager 3 percent, according to Kia.

Meanwhile, Mazda will roll out a new gasoline-saving technology, called SkyActiv, on the 2013 small crossover CX-5 and the 2013 Mazda3. SkyActiv will use high-compression ratios in cylinders to achieve better gas mileage. As a result, the 2013 Mazda3, which is scheduled to be introduced October 2012, is likely to join the 40 mpg-on-the-highway club. That’s a significant improvement over the 2012 model, which gets 29 mpg on the highway. Mazda expects to add the technology to other models in the years ahead, company spokesperson Jeremy Barnes says.

TECH TALK. Changes in technology hardly are limited to the engine. In fact, automakers are starting to think of their vehicles more as computers on wheels. They continue to add more connectivity features in navigation, entertainment or climate control, which makes it easier for drivers to multitask when they’re away from home. For instance, dashboard video screens are getting larger—larger even than the screens that are on tablet computers. The most extreme example that we saw is the 2013 Lexus GS sedan, which will have a 12.3-inch video screen that will allow information displays to be broken up into either two or three panels, so a driver or passenger could coordinate navigation information on one side of the screen and music choices or climate control on the other.

But experts say the bigger news is about what technological advances could come next. Within 5 years, vehicles will become even more personalized because of advances that manufacturers are making with the help of cloud computing, says Alan Hall, who is a technology specialist at Ford Motor. Cloud technology is the ability to access your personal files of Web-based music, movies and other content anywhere that you happen to be, whether it’s sitting on a park bench while you eyeball your smartphone or driving your vehicle.

Mercedes demonstrated a cloud-based automotive system in a research vehicle in September at the Frankfurt auto show. Mercedes says a cloud-based system would allow drivers and passengers to get more seamless performance from their audio content. For instance, when you hop into your vehicle, the cloud-based audio book to which you were listening on the drive home the night before automatically would resume from where it stopped. And the system could allow you to keep tabs on your vehicle’s condition even when you aren’t in it. With the cloud, you could use your smartphone to check your fuel level remotely or to determine when your vehicle needs an oil change.

Cloud computing also could lead to more mobile applications that would affect a vehicle’s performance. In a 2010 test, University of Michigan students developed apps for Ford’s cloud-computing system, which was developed in conjunction with Microsoft and Intel. These apps allowed real-time tracking of fuel use and kept tabs on the location and status of other vehicles that travel together (think: a two- or three-vehicle convoy during a family vacation). It’s uncertain how much extra that automakers would charge for such new apps, but in-vehicle connectivity typically has come standard or is a relatively low-cost option on new vehicles. For instance, although Ford’s Sync system has become standard on some models, it’s a $395 option on most of Ford’s vehicles.

SAFETY FIRST. When it comes to creating safety innovations, the big improvements appear to be coming in radar, sensors and other systems that make vehicles aware of the surrounding conditions. For instance, Infiniti, which already uses lane-departure-warning systems, has been showing off a new Backup Collision Intervention system that it developed for its JX crossover, which is a three-row, seven-passenger crossover SUV that’s due in showrooms in spring 2012. If the SUV’s transmission is in reverse and a person, pet or other object that is taller than about 30 inches is detected behind it as it backs up, the system automatically will throw on the brakes to prevent a collision. The system is designed to work on speeds of up to about 10 mph. Unfortunately, the JX won’t have a similar system to brake the vehicle automatically if it detects an impending collision as it travels forward, which is a feature that has become increasingly popular among European automakers.

Meanwhile, other automakers appear to be getting closer to systems that allow vehicles basically to drive themselves in certain situations. BMW, for instance, is testing vehicles that have a feature that it calls Traffic Jam Assistant. In creep-and-crawl traffic, the vehicle’s sensors take over the speed and steering. Traffic Jam Assistant even has the capability of bringing the vehicle to a full stop. The system can keep a vehicle in its lane at speeds of up to about 25 mph, BMW says. The driver only has to keep a hand on the wheel. But there’s no idea when BMW might bring this to market or how much extra that it would add to the cost of a vehicle.

Both BMW and VW are testing systems that can let vehicles drive themselves at up to 80 mph. In the case of VW, the technology is called Temporary Auto Pilot, to underscore that it’s for use only on open highways and it requires drivers to always monitor the vehicle and to be prepared to take control at any moment. Temporary Auto Pilot integrates several systems that are available in many vehicles—particularly in luxury models—such as adaptive cruise control, a lane-departure-warning system, cameras and GPS, which automatically displays any road’s speed limit.

By combining those features in one system, VW says, it can create a vehicle that not only will keep the vehicle well behind the one that’s in front of it, but it also will keep it centered in the lane even through curves. The system also knows how to follow speed limits or overtake slower vehicles.

General Motors says that it will develop partially-autonomous vehicles within the next 5 years. Leading up to that is the development of a crash-avoidance system that relies in part on vehicle-to vehicle communication systems to gather information about other vehicles to avoid potential hazards. But automobile-industry experts say the first such semiautonomous driving systems won’t be available in vehicles until at least the end of this decade. And it could be sometime in the late 2020s when the first full-fledged driverless vehicles arrive. In other words, don’t throw your driving gloves away anytime soon.

Chris Woodyard is the automotive reporter for USA Today. He has written about the automobile industry for 6 years.